Art of Inference
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| Volume 20 #1 - February 2002 |
| Anomaly - Volume 20 | |
| 01 February 2002 | |
Anomalies Used in the Inference Process
Reports - Volume 28 (2001) #20 China: Yin and Yang
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In China, private passenger car sales are zooming up by 25 percent a year, according to General Motors. |
Reports - Volume 28 (2001) #19 Home Debt: A Bubble
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A study that examined consumer behavior from 1982 to 1999 found that the wealth effect from housing was statistically significant and twice as large as the stock market effect. On average, a 10 percent rise in house prices resulted in a rise in consumption of roughly 0.6 percent. |
Reports - Volume 28 (2001) #18 Terrorist Attacks
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The terrorist attacks have turned a two-decade trend toward less government into a rush for more. Washington is erupting with proposals to give existing agencies new powers. Urban dwellers are buying second homes as refuge. Real estate agents in California and the Hamptons are reporting a surge in interest from people intent on finding a safe haven from terror in the skies and in the mail. |
Reports - Volume 28 (2001) #16 Green: Becoming Moral
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In growing numbers, voters are raising their local taxes to preserve open space in their own backyards. Residents of Boise, Idaho, voted last May to hike property taxes for two years to raise $10 million to buy land. Voters in McHenry County, Illinois, near Chicago, and in DeKalb County, Georgia, near Atlanta, passed bond referendums to buy open space. |
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Symbols Early indicators of change often come in the form of symbols found in dreams and myths.Such symbol-related changes are apt to be strong and prolonged. Carl Jung states, "Dreams prepare, announce, or warn about certain situations, often long before they actually happen. This is not necessarily a miracle or a precognition. Most crises or dangerous situations have a long incubation; only the conscious mind is not aware of it. Dreams can betray the secret." (The Symbolic Life, C G Jung) Myths are public dreams. The Batman myth preceded a decade-long fight on crime. Today's myth is the wizard Harry Potter. This turn to magic is telling us something. Myths are stories about the wisdom of life. |
Grandparents exercise more frequently than their teenage grandchildren, a new study shows. In fact, people over 55 exercise more than any other age group. (USA Today)
A study by the Rand Corp. found that over the last 20 years, people under the age of 55 are getting sicker while everyone above that age is getting relatively healthier. The disability rate for older people fell by 20% while it increased by the same percentage for younger Americans. That translates to 330,000 more disabled people among the under-55 group today than 20 years ago. (Wash Post)
DNA from genetically modified corn has mysteriously turned up inside native varieties grown in a remote mountain area of Mexico, raising concerns of "genetic pollution" of indigenous crops. (USA Today)
Owners of mid-sized farms are becoming their own middlemen by banding together to process their crops into everything from liquid eggs for fast-food chains to corn-based fuel for cars. These "new-generation coops" are almost "paradoxical" says one observer. "By cooperating, the family farm can remain independent. It's a new way of thinking about agriculture." (CSM)
A new genetically engineered corn could replace tons of pesticides used by farmers against the destructive rootworm. The rootworms are killed when try to eat the roots of the altered plants. (Wash Post)
For the first time, the amount of every farm subsidy payment received by every farmer since 1996 has been made public. The Environmental Working Group posted the information gained through the Freedom of Information Act on their web site, www.ewg.org. (NYT)
In Omro, Wis., two robots on Peter Knigge's diary farm milk cows 200 times a day around the clock. His cows now get milked on average nearly three times a day, producing 10% more milk per cow. For the first time in 30 years, he can stand and watch - or sleep in. (CSM)
Auto recalls are on the rise. There were 483 recalls of 23.4 million vehicles in the in 2000 compared to 208 recalls of 5.99 million vehicles in 1990. "Throughout the world, I have a sense the troubles related to cars are on the increase," said Hiroshi Okuda, chairman of Toyota. (Dow Jones)
The spread of mass customization techniques is starting to spell an end to the old production line. Nearly all of the 254 Citation aircraft - each containing up to 40,000 parts - made at a Cessna plant in Kansas in 2000 was different. (FT)
Pricing in grocery stores is "moving from the product to the store to the individual consumer," says grocery-industry veteran Patrick Kiernan. Regular consumers of a particular item will get the sale price automatically whether it's on sale or not. The only people paying posted prices will be strangers or those who value privacy so much that they are willing to pay extra for it. (WSJ)
"Mass marketing has become a very hard thing to do because people don't like to be seen as 'normal' any more - they all want to be seen as individuals," says Martin Hayward, chairman of the Henley Centre. "The bigger you become, the less appealing you become. It's a dilemma." (FT)
In an unusual move for a book seller, Barnes & Noble has begun to remove books from its best-seller list after a 12-month limit. (NYT)
Mass migration to the cities is "putting an almost impossible pressure on public health. Almost half of all Chinese now carry the TB virus and we are seeing dozens of new diseases, many of which are crossovers from animals to humans and for which we so far have no cure," says Paul Dietrich, president of the Institute for International Health and Development. (FT)
China spends - as a percent of income - more per capita on education than any other country in the world. Some studies show that, by 2020, China will have 20 million students enrolled in higher education. (CHE)
At the end of last year, the state-owned oil companies of China and Taiwan were close to agreement on an unprecedented natural-gas and oil drilling joint venture in the Taiwan Strait, extending commercial ties into a potential war zone. (WSJ)
Dr. Wan Feng, chairman of cardiac surgery at People's Hospital, is performing sophisticated beating-heart surgery in numbers unrivaled anywhere. He is also pioneering an entrepreneurial economic model under which surgeons can earn more by providing their services to several hospitals. (WSJ)
Last year, President Jiang Zemin marked the 80th anniversary of the Communist Party's creation with a speech unexpectedly declaring that private businessmen should be granted party membership. (Wash Post)
In the first move of its kind, China has agreed to suspend immediately all agricultural tariffs. China dropped a ban on imports of American wheat in 2000, and it can now be bought in China for about $36 less a ton than can domestic wheat. (CSM & NYT)
The Seattle Mariners have signed a 16-year-old right-handed pitching prospect from China - the first baseball player signed out of China. (NYT)
Purple or lilac colored ties are taking the place of the standard red on a number of celebrity figures including Michael Bloomberg, Mark Green, Richard Gephardt and Jay Leno. Esquire's fashion director, Stefano Tonchi, is struck by "the notion that this is a color that belongs more to the world of women and home. You think about purple and you think about purple silk, brocades, cushions, upholstery, curtains, privacy and home." (NYT)
Over the summer, Individualized Shirts, the country's biggest maker of custom shirts, noticed a 12% increase in orders for the color white. (WSJ)
"For a long time now, we'd been seeing a lot of color [in women's fashion], a lot of overt color. But black is making a pretty strong comeback. For a while, it was looking a little less current, but now you're seeing it head to toe," said Nordstrom's East Coast fashion director. (Sun)
The confectionery sector is growing at triple the pace of the overall food industry and some of the fastest growth is found in foods that can be eaten with one hand. (WSJ)
Young people today are on average 50% more extrovert than people of the same age in the 1960s if you compare scores on extroversion scales obtained over the last 30 years. (FT)
The under-25 reading audience is now buying books for leisure reading at three times the rate of the overall market. (WSJ)
Homicides increased sharply last year in many large cities. The rise was led by Boston and Phoenix, which had increases of more than 60%. (NYT)
In a one-month pilot program last fall, Dollar Rent a Car required customers at 14 airports to be fingerprinted - the first company in the industry to try such a security measure. (Wash Post)
Virginia Beach is the second city in the country to approve he use of face-recognition surveillance technology after the September 11 attacks. (Wash Times)
Crime in Newham, England, has been reduced by 34%, thanks to surveillance cameras which capture the faces of the 500,000 people entering shopping centers each month and match these against a list of 100 known street robbers. (FT)
In 1950, today's high-income countries had 32% of world population. Today, this is just over 19%. Ninety nine per cent of the 3bn increase in world population forecast for the next 50 years is expected in he developing world. (FT)
Less than 25% of American households are married couples with children younger than 18. And more Americans are remaining single - 82 million of them. In the last 10 years, the number of non-family households grew at twice the rate of family households. (Insight)
"In the 20th century, we gained an additional 30 years of life. It took the preceding 50 centuries to do that. That's extraordinary," says Dr. Robert N. Butler, president of the International Longevity Center. (NYT)
The number of children living with stay-at-home dads has jumped 70% since 1990, to 1.7 million. (BW)
For the first time in 14 years, the total number of Ph.D.s granted by universities in the United States has fallen - with engineering and physical sciences showing the largest percentage drops. (CHE)
At Harvard University, a new service downloads videotaped lectures and makes them available to students on the Web. Surprise, surprise, anecdotal evidence from professors indicates that absenteeism is on the rise. (WSJ)
After spending thousands of dollars to wire their classrooms, some business schools are now installing electronic "kill switches" that allow a professor to shut down students' Internet access while class is in session. (CHE)
Studies have found that home-schooled students in the first through fourth grades perform one grade higher than private- and public-school students. By the eighth grade, home-schooled students are performing four grade levels higher than the national average. (IBD)
About 25% more females than males take Advanced Placement exams. (Wash Times)
A joint venture between Bard College and the New York Board of Education allows students to compress four years of high school into two, and then complete two years of college by the age of 18. (CSM)
Dutch and Swedish researchers have developed a computer-driven dashboard display that advises drivers throughout a trip on ways to reduce fuel use. City drivers who follow the advice on acceleration, braking and other maneuvers reduce their gasoline consumption by 20%. (NYT)
New research has found that ultraviolet light can kill waterborne parasites such as giardia and cryptosporidium, both of which survive chlorination. (NYT)
Local governments from Arizona to Florida have been banning nude and even partial and "simulated nude" dancing. (NYT)
The number of head injuries from bicycling has increased 10% since 1991, even as bicycle helmet use has risen sharply. Given that ridership has declined over the same period, the rate of head injuries per active cyclist has increased 51%. (NYT)
The Connecticut Supreme Court has ruled that it is unconstitutional for the town of Greenwich to maintain its exclusive character by keeping non-residents off its beaches. In New Jersey, the attorney general has threatened to sue some private landowners for erecting fences to keep the public out. (FT)
In December, Gov. Gray Davis suspended sales of California's database of birth and death records when it was reported that the data was being made available on the web. (NYT)
A new medical device called RespeRate is the first nondrug treatment for hypertension to gain FDA approval. Resembling a DiscMan, the device analyzes your breathing pattern with a sensor strapped around your waist; it then produces tones on headphones that gradually lead you to take longer, deeper breaths. (Health)
Some national medical laboratories now allow patients to bypass doctors and order their own medical tests. The most popular offering at HealthCheckUSA.com is the VIP-plus package, which for $75 includes about 40 different blood screenings including thyroid, cholesterol, liver and kidney profiles. (WSJ)
"Under the system designed for mass-marketed drugs, clinical trials are required to show that an agent . . . works in a statistically significant number of people better than a placebo or the accepted standard treatment. In contrast, the new biological therapies will be more like chemical surgery. Every patient is unique; nobody considers it appropriate or workable to impose a single regulated standard on surgeons." - Robert Oldham, CEO of Cancer Therapeutics Inc. (WSJ)
The Joint Commission on Accreditation of Health Care Organizations now recommends that pain be treated as a fifth "vital sign," along with blood pressure, pulse, respiration, and temperature. (USN&WR)
A Harvard study of 1,000 men and women in Costa Rica, half of whom had suffered a heart attack, found that the heart-attack patients, as a group, were much more likely to have enjoyed daily siestas - and longer ones - than their healthy peers. (Parade)
A number of hospitals are creating miniature malls consisting of banks, bookstores, coffee shops, restaurants, drugstores and other offerings. "People think of hospitals as a place to get sick and die. We're trying to change that image so that people start to look at getting preventative care," says the chief executive of UC Physicians in Ohio. (WSJ)
The Mabuchi Motor Co., the world leader for nearly every type of motor it sells, has shifted 90% of its annual production of 1.7 billion micro-motors to China; the company no longer makes anything in Japan. (Wash Post)
A British man will run a large new art museum being built in central Tokyo - the first time a foreigner has run an art museum in Japan. (FT)
The Baltimore County Public Library now offers instant translation services to patrons of any one of 148 languages. The around-the-clock service works via conference call with Language Line Services of Monterey, Calif. (Sun)
In Aspen, Colo., a shoestring, wireless, high-speed Internet service allows anyone in a 45-square-mile area around the city with a computer and $120 plug-in card to surf the Web over the airwaves free at speeds 30 times as fast as with a standard modem. (WSJ)
Distributed-computing networks that use the excess processing power of thousands of PCs allow researchers to purchase computer time at a fraction of the cost of buying a supercomputer. "I think it's a first in the world of technology that companies are actually borrowing from the masses and reselling it to corporations," said a Yankee Group analyst. (NYT)
Wireless technology is contributing to the nation's electricity demand. According to one study, a Web-enabled Palm Pilot uses as much electricity as a heavy-duty refrigerator. (NYT)
Devices using the 802.11b open standard for wireless communication can carry data at up to 11 megabits per second - ten times faster than most cable modems. (USA Today)
At a small but growing number of colleges, the technology known as Internet Protocol telephony is being used to replace campus telephone networks. "We used to pay about $11,000 a month for our 100 administrative telephones," says the director of Information technology at Menlo College. "We pay about $1,000 now." (CHE)
A Bergen Airport in Norway, a Norwegian company recently installed a system that automatically shuts off travelers' cellphones before they enter the plane. (NYT)
The growth of text messaging in the Philippines is staggering - an estimated 100 million text messages clog the wireless networks each day. That puts the country well ahead of previous world leader Germany by 1 billion messages a month. (Forbes)
Stuffbak, a two-year old Colorado company, aims to reunite people with the cell phones, car keys and other items they leave behind. The company makes tags and labels bearing coded ID numbers and a toll-free phone number. "Of all the items reported lost, about 90% have been returned," said the company president. (Wash Post)
Membership in the American Association of Nude Recreation has doubled in the last decade to 50,000, with most of the growth among people 18 to 34. (NYT)
At Mimio's Papers in Pasadena, Calif., the 2 1/2-hour gift-wrapping classes were so popular this year that the owner had to schedule extra sessions. (WSJ)
At the Naval Academy, midshipmen are now required to take a year-long military training class that includes lessons in etiquette and ballroom dancing. At the same time, midshipmen who play intramural sports are being told to play at least one contact sport a year. (Capital)
Over the past few years, the number and quality of vocal programs - song recitals - has increased dramatically. "The great myth of our times is that technology is communication. By putting up an enormous barrier between human beings, technology makes us yearn for the intimacy that a live performance of a song can give," writes composer Libby Larsen. (New Yorker)
A golf course with more than 20,000 trees, 4 lakes and a computer-guided watering system has opened in Syria - the country's first course. (AP)
The World Adult Kickball Association now has 1,600 members in the Washington, D.C. area and hopes to add chapters in San Diego, San Francisco, Baltimore, New York and Richmond. (NYT)
In recent years, the production of Steinway pianos has fallen short of demand; in Los Angeles, there was a period in 1990 when the the dealer had no Steinway grands in stock. (New Yorker)
Under a new law signed by President Putin, millions of Russians will now be able to register the land under their homes and dachas as their own personal property. (CSM)
Brian Walker, who made his fortune in the toy business, plans to strap himself to a 24-foot rocket packing 9,000 pounds of fuel this summer, light it up, and shoot himself into space. At 35 miles, a thruster will activate that will send him back to the ground. (Rocketguy.com)
The rate of neurogenesis - the continuous creation of nerve cells in the brain - is higher, as might be expected, in mice that live in "enriched" environments with more activities than a standard cage. More surprisingly, however, neurogenesis doubles when a mouse has a simple running wheel in its cage. (FT)
A revolutionary five-passenger jet from Albuquerque's Eclipse Corp. will cruise at 41,000 feet, fly more than 400 miles per hour, and sell for less than a million dollars. The plane's jet engines weigh only 80 pounds but deliver 700 pounds of thrust, for an unheard of 9-to-1 thrust-to-weight ratio. (NYT)
DaimlerChrysler says it is developing technology to power vehicles with hydrogen fuel cells that use a mixture of sodium borohydride, commonly known as borax, and water. The borax and water deliver hydrogen to the fuel cell. The system produces no emissions and no greenhouse gases. (USA Today)
Associated Anomalies
Reports
Anomaly
Inference Update
Quarterly Reviews
Anomalies
Themes
Thinking About Thinking
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