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| Volume 23 #3 - September 2005 |
| Anomaly - Volume 23 | |
| 01 September 2005 | |
Anomalies Used in the Inference Process
Reports - Volume 32 (2005) #5 A Commodity Bull Market
| In less than a year, many more people are earning their livelihood from commodities futures-related activities. Commodities are big business. Three national exchanges, a dozen active regional bourses, 2,000 brokers operating 6,000 terminals, and 10,000 active traders are tracking commodity prices round the clock. (Asia Africa Intelligence Wire, 3/7/05, Economic Times) |
Reports - Volume 32 (2005) #7 Thyristors (Power Chips)
| Hybrid cars cost $4,000 to $5,000 more than comparable, non-hybrid models. Yet, these expensive versions anomalously have a waiting list of buyers. On April 26, 2005, the Lexus RX 400h, priced at $50,800 had a one-year waiting list at some dealerships. Similarly, a waiting period for the hybrid Toyota Prius, at $23,605, was 27 weeks. (HybridCars.com) |
Reports - Volume 32 (2005) #8 Bubbles
| Real estate-crazed Americans have started behaving in ways that eerily recall the stock market obsession of the late 1990s. In Naples, Florida, some houses have been bought twice in a single week. (The New York Times, 3/25/05) |
Reports - Volume 32 (2005) #9 Eating Alone : A Fresh Look at Family
| Once upon a time families used their formal dining rooms not just for holidays but for most meals. Today, dining rooms are the least used room in the house, if they even appear at all. (Financial Times, 12/26/04) |
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Decisions and Ignorace Change forces money managers and businessmen to make decisions. Change incorporates danger and opportunity. But since change presents a new situation, it is surrounded by ignorance.Jim Collins, author of the business book, Good to Great, says that great decisions stem from saying, "I don't know." Jim Williams |
A growing number of companies are introducing small "black boxes" in vehicles that watch, record, and report - some instantly - speed, braking, and rate of acceleration. Some even pinpoint where the car is. (USN&WR, 3/21/05)
"A study released [in June] by the Institute for Crisis Management found that just a quarter of business crises come out of the blue. Most are 'smoldering' rather than sudden, and are the result of mistakes that management had made. Signs of trouble exist but are ignored or overlooked." Columnist James Surowiecki. (New Yorker, 6/20/05)
In an effort to reach young savers and spenders, a growing number of banks and credit unions are opening branches in high schools - some even in middle and elementary schools. (WSJ, 3/8/05)
New research using a psychological concept known as "casual attribution" (the way people come up with explanations for social behaviors and events) has found organizations that take responsibility for negative events are more likely to see their stock prices rise than companies that blame external factors. (FT, 3/5/05)
In May, CapitalBio, a four-year-old biochip company entered a partnership with Affymetrix, the world's largest biochip producer. "Affymetrix had never imagined that there was such a big research effort in biochips in China, working to such a high standard," says Cheng Jing, CapitalBio's chief executive. (FT, 6/9/05)
During an extended visit to Australia, Chinese President Hu Jintao became the first Asian leader to address the Australian legislature, receiving a 20-minute standing ovation. (New Republic, 6/27/05)
Gendicine, developed in China to combat tumors, is the only gene therapy in the world to have received regulatory approval, after it was authorized by China's State Food and Drug Administration. (FT, 4/1/05)
For the first time since 1949, most registered companies in China are privately owned. (FT, 4/4/05)
In 1982, only 20% of China's provincial leaders had attended college. In 2002, this number was 98%. (The Beijing Consensus, Spring 2004)
The unthinkable is happening in China: a labor shortfall. Last year, the Chinese Labor Ministry put the factory shortfall at 2.8 million workers nationwide. (USA Today, 4/12/05)
More than 1 million genetically altered poplar trees have been planted in China - the first commercial-scale deployment of such trees in the world. Bacillus thuringiensis, or Bt, a naturally occurring toxin inserted into the tree's DNA, kills insects that try to eat the tree's leaves. (CSM, 3/10/05)
A decade ago China didn't have a single ski resort. Today, it boasts more than 200. This year, an estimated 5 million Chinese will visit ski resorts. It has also helped that China has switched from a six-day workweek to a five-day one. (The Week, 3/25/05)
Around 240 million Chinese children now learn the piano. The Pearl River Piano Group is now the second largest instrument manufacturer in the world. There are 30 full-time professional symphony orchestras in China - more than the U.S. has. (The Times, 3/29/05)
Glaciers in many parts of the world are growing, not shrinking. Norway's glaciers are growing at a record pace. All 48 glaciers in New Zealand's Southern Alps are growing. All seven glaciers on Mount Shasta in California are growing. (New Scientist, 4/16/05)
According to a poll by Global Market Insite, 50% of respondents in Asia and Europe said they mistrust U.S. companies, and 20% said they consciously avoid U.S. goods. "People are asking whether a brand conforms to their ideologies," says Naseem Javed, CEO of ABC Namebank. "This has never happened on such a grand scale. But post-9/11, it has exploded." (New Republic, 4/11/05)
Mr. Steam, a New York-based manufacturer, has been in business for 25 years. But, in the past five years sales in home steam showers have grown "exponentially," says company Vice President Martha Orellana. "If you feel a cold coming on, you sweat it out.... It's also a great way to promote sleep." (Knight-Ridder, 3/27/05)
"Globalization [has] led not to monoculturalism and a convergence of tastes but to the emergence of a global culture .... Now people can buy products from all over the world, expressing their preferences and indeed their identities by choosing from a vast array of local, regional and global brands." - Columnist Richard Tom-kins in the Financial Times. (New Republic, 4/11/05)
The U.S. ranks sixth worldwide in the number of people graduating with bachelor degrees in engineering. Meantime, China is graduating some four times more engineers than the U.S., and Japan - with less than half our population - graduates twice as many engineers as we do. (WSJ, 5/5/05)
By 2008, more than half the jobs in engineering could be done anywhere in the world, according to a McKinsey & Co. study. "But the underlying growth in demand for engineers is so great that even when you consider the potential of offshoring, there will be demand in the U.S.," the study concludes. (WSJ, 6/16/05)
The Times of London recently released a global ranking of the 200 best universities in the world. Harvard was the top-ranked school. The second-best was a surprise: the University of California at Berkeley. Public universities in Alabama, Texas, Maryland, Michigan, Virginia and other states ranked among the global elite 200. (Wash Post, 4/19/05)
Today, there is not one tenured professor in the departments of political science at Harvard, Princeton, Stanford, Chicago or Yale universities who specializes in the politics of the wider Middle East. (Wash Post, 4/12/05)
Teachers and school psychologists notice that more kids than ever won't sit still. "I hear it all the time," says psychologist David Walsh. "It's become harder over the last 10 years to keep kids' attention. The expectation is to be constantly entertained and, if they're not entertained, they quickly lose interest." (USA Today, 3/30/05)
"It astonishes and absolutely delights me how great an appetite there is for intellectually rigorous college-level courses," says Elizabeth Vandiver, who has recorded courses about the Odyssey and the Iliad for The Teaching Company. "They aren't dumbed-down or oversimplified. ... People are doing them for the sheer joy of learning." (Wash Post, 3/3/05)
Stephens College, a small all-female liberal arts school, kicked off 2004-2005 with a new eight-room "pet floor," becoming one of only a few colleges in the country to allow pets in dorm rooms. (CSM, 3/15/05)
A University of Illinois group has built a membrane-free alkaline fuel cell. Surface tension keeps the methanol and water from mixing together. A prototype may be ready in three years. (BW, 4/1105)
A plan to fuel a kiln at a Carroll County, Maryland, cement factory with Baltimore sewage sludge would be the nation's first use of "biosolids" as an energy source. A pound of dried biosolids could do the work of a half-pound of coal and will burn cleaner. (Bait Sun, 4/14/05)
For some unknown reason, from Houston to Washington, it's been a year of aggressive mockingbirds, crows, hawks, and even woodpeckers. Police had to close down an entire Houston street in late May after a gang of grackles attacked pedestrians, knocking some of them down. (CSM, 6/10/05)
Poor is the new rich: An aristocrat's guide to living a genteel life on little money topped Germany's best-seller list in May. In The Art of Stylish Poverty, Count Alexander von Schonburg-Glachau attempts to teach average Germans how to cope with being what he calls "nouveaux pauvres." (The Week, 5/13/05)
In June, a freight train left a lime works at Dugny, near Verdun in eastern France, bound for a steel plant in Germany. It was the first entirely privately operated French freight train since 1938. (FT, 6/14/05)
Not a single enterprise founded in France in the past 40 years has managed to break into the ranks of the 25 biggest French companies. By comparison, 19 of today's 25 largest U.S. companies didn't exist four decades ago. (Wash Post, 6/5/05)
Virtual currency used in online communities created by the videogame industry is a hot commodity: the fake currencies of the virtual worlds trade for real dollars on eBay and other online sites. (FT, 3/31/05)
Zopa.com is trying to bring borrowers and lenders together over the Internet. Cash committed to lending is spread over a minimum of 50 borrowers. The exchange charges a 1 % fee. "People want to consume on their own terms. The next movement in business is the transfer of power to the individual, via a middle man, but a very light touch middle man," says James Alexander, chief financial officer of Zopa. (FT, 4/18/05)
Calculations by The Economist suggest that the total stock of unredeemed frequent-flyer miles - almost 14 trillion - is now worth more than all the dollar bills in circulation around the globe. (Economist, 1/6/05)
Last January, Slovakia became the sixth Eastern European country to adopt a flat tax, which means all income-earners pay the same rate. Since then, Romania and Georgia have followed suit. (CSM, 3/8/05)
Self-identified investors in the U.S. comprised 46% of the total vote in 2004, a significantly higher figure than pre-election polls suggested. The group is neither dominated by the wealthy nor do members necessarily aspire to become wealthy. (WSJ, 3/15/05)
Americans who attend religious services at least once a week enjoy better-than-average health and lower rates of illness, including depression. (WSJ, 5/3/05)
Several Minnesota hospital systems have agreed to grant discounts to uninsured patients and scale back aggressive debt-collection efforts. Minnesota is the first state to broker such a deal. (USA Today, 5/5/05)
Bedbugs are making a comeback, in part because some of the pesticides that had kept them at bay have been phased out. Their resurgence startles even bug experts. Gary Bennett, professor of urban entomology at Purdue, has studied insects for 50 years and says he hadn't seen a case of bedbugs until recently. (WSJ, 4/21/05)
Yoplait Healthy Heart is the first yogurt in the U.S. to serve up plant sterols - naturally occurring substances that scientific research shows may inhibit the absorption of cholesterol. (BW, 4/1/05)
Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota is reimbursing its customers for working out regularly, one of the first health insurers in the nation to give its members rebates. Insured members receive up to a $20 monthly credit if they work out for at least eight days a month. (Wash Times, 4/1/05)
Under a new policy that legal specialists say is the first of its kind, Weyco, an insurance benefits administrator, began testing its 200 employees for smoking in January. (NYT, 2/8/05)
"Forty years ago there were only a handful of mental illnesses, and relatively few people were seen as being manipulated by a mental 'illness.' Now there are innumerable mental disorders, created by psychiatrists. In fact the most recent edition of the bible of psychiatry, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Metal Disorders, covers everyone. If every other diagnosis fails, you've always got 'personality disorder not otherwise specified.'" - Psychologist and writer Dorothy Rowe. (New Scientist, 2/5/05)
Indian companies applied for nearly 800 patents at the World Intellectual Property Organization last year -more than twice the number of patents it applied for four years ago. (WSJ, 4/11/05)
"The basis for content on the internet is shifting from text to video: it is imperative for all portals to create or license their own content," says Michael Wolf of McKinsey, the management consultancy. "Ultimately, what they are trying to do is bypass TV." (FT, 6/21/05)
More than 42% of online shoppers and 28% of people who bank online are cutting back on their activity because of "phishing" attacks and other assaults on sensitive data, according to a May survey by Gartner Inc. In phishing scams, fraudsters use emails designed to look like the messages from banks or other trusted companies to induce consumers to visit fake Web sites and divulge private information. (WSJ, 6/23/05)
In 2003, the number of manufacturing plants in Japan jumped sharply after 15 years of steady decline. Last year, several manufacturers announced huge investments in Japan. (FT, 5/5/05)
Wage growth has trailed far behind productivity growth over the past four years. Since 2001, productivity growth has averaged 4.1 % a year; employee compensation is up 1.5% a year on average. These wage patterns do not conform to traditional economic explanations, says economist J. Bradford DeLong. (NYT, 4/12/05)
"In the 1960's in the Soviet Union, it was cool to wear blue jeans and listen to rock and roll," said Andrei Lankov, who teaches at Kookmin University in South Korea. "Today, it is cool for North Koreans to look and behave South Korean, as they do in the television serials. That does not bode well for the long-term survival of the regime." (NYT, 3/15/05)
Sales of religious books are booming. Total U.S. book sales rose 2.8% in 2004 to 26.6 billion, while religious books saw 11% growth to nearly $2 billion. (Reuters, 6/21/05)
"Welcome to our home. Please remove your shoes." It's an increasingly common refrain in this age of white carpet and antibacterial everything as more and more people are going shoeless at home and asking visitors to do the same. (Austin American-Statesman, 4/10/05)
"Storage units are a symptom of a much deeper malaise," says psychiatrist Peter Whybrow, author of American Mania: When More Is Not Enough. "Where there's no clearly defined social hierarchy other than money, the acquisitive nature gets maximized by the need to create one's own social standing." He says, "So you keep what you want to flaunt and you put the rest away - because you can't bear to give it away." (CSM, 3/9/05)
A recent Pew Research Center report says that 45% of Americans believe little or nothing in their daily newspapers, up from 16% two decades ago. (NYT, 4/12/05)
When Roland Rotz, a clinical psychologist in Santa Barbara, Calif., started a support group for people who struggle with clutter about a year ago, he expected 15 to 20 to show up. The room was packed with more than 70 people, and they've kept coming. (Bait Sun, 4/24/05)
Residential investment has become a black hole, absorbing a staggering 5.8% of GDP. That's the highest level since the late 1940s and early '50s, when an entire generation of returning soldiers was buying homes. (BW, 6/6/05)
A record 23% of home purchases last year were made for investment purposes. The number of real estate investment clubs has increased fourfold to 177 in the past three years. (USA Today, 6/1/05)
Year-round waterfront living has long been popular in sunny cities such as Miami and Los Angeles. It is now spreading to some of the country's oldest and coldest towns, such as Boston, Washington, D.C. and Brooklyn. (WSJ, 6/22/05)
Housing markets used to be driven by word of mouth. Now parents on the move are flocking to websites detailing student-performance statistics and district comparisons. Homestore.com, that features such reports, averaged 8.65 million unique users per month in 2004. (CSM, 4/28/05)
Sixteen of the country's top twenty counties in terms of percentage of college educated people are now suburban; only three, Manhattan, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C., are cities. (CSM, 6/8/05)
Half of the 12 fastest-growing counties this decade experience cold winters. It doesn't matter how cold it is," says Robert Lang, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech. "If you're on the edge of a big booming region, you're going to grow. That wasn't always the case." (USA Today, 4/15/05)
Florida and Arizona show significantly higher growth in their under-25 populations than the nation as a whole: up 10.9% in Florida and 11.7% in Arizona, compared with 2.9% nationwide. "For Florida and Arizona, the retirement image needs to be redefined," says demographer William Frey. (USA Today, 3/10/05)
Men are showing up at spas in far greater numbers than they used to. The International Spa Association says 29% of spa goers are now men. (NYT, 5/31/05)
A small but growing number of families are selling their homes and following their children to boarding school. In the past "there wasn't much hesitation among parents in this social class to separate from their kids," says one father who moved from Berkeley, Calif., to Cambridge, Mass. "Today it's a different mind-set." (NYT, 2/3/05)
The United States is undergoing a "rural renaissance," says Alabama-based Progressive Farmer magazine. City refugees seek 40-acre "farmettes," or even spots with as few as five acres, often within an hour or so of a major city. (Wash Times, 2/8/05)
Brazil is the first country to require any company or research institute that receives government financing to develop software, to license it as open-source, meaning the underlying software code must be free to all. (NYT, 3/29/05)
The new generation of internet entrepreneurs are often not to be found in America's Silicon Valley. Thanks to more advanced mobile and broadband communications networks, other countries are now proving to be better breeding grounds for new entrepreneurs. "We're doing a lot of investing in China and Korea," says Steve Jur-vetson, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist. (FT, 4/18/05)
A High-resolution Ultrasonic Transmission Tomography (HUTT) scanner being developed by biomedical engineers at UCLA uses ultrasound to create three-dimensional images of soft tissue. It gives a higher resolution than all other scanning technologies and can even tell the difference between benign and malignant growths. The scanner will cost around $300,000, 5 to 10 times cheaper than an MRI scanner. (New Scientist, 4/16/05)
"The war against terrorism can be won. . .. The influence of PAS [a radical Islamist party] is clearly on the wane in Malaysia, and in last year's presidential election in Indonesia, no Islamist party came anywhere near posing a threat.... Turning back the tide really is possible." (Economist, 6/4/05)
An alleged boom in Islamic schooling [in Pakistan] may have been overstated. The madrassas vary widely in their curriculum, aims and doctrine. Most have no link with extremism at all. "It is a figment of the imagination that they are a factory for terrorism," says a senator from a leading Islamist party. (Economist, 5/21/05)
More people in Indonesia now favor American efforts against terrorism than oppose them. In a dramatic turn- around, support for Osama bin Laden and terrorism have dropped significantly, while favorable opinion of the U.S. has increased. (CSM, 3/21/05)
Full-length films can now be compressed tightly enough to fit on memory cards so they can be watched on cellphones. The Shaw shank Redemption became the first movie to go on sale on a 64-megabyte memory card. (New Scientist, 5/7/05)
Tarnation, a independently made documentary, drew rave reviews at the Sundance and Cannes film festivals. Jonathan Caouette, a self-described computer illiterate, used iMovie from Apple to make the video. "This literally went from my desktop computer to a worldwide distribution deal in less than a year," he said. (USA Today, 4/1/05)
"All of this thoughtful engineering produces absolutely gasp-inducing video. When played back on a high-def television, the video is astonishingly crisp, the colors are incredibly true, even low-light scenes are impressively clear." - David Prague reviewing Sony's new $3,300 HDR-FX1 camcorder. The next least expensive high-def camcorder costs about $40,000. (NYT, 2/10/05)
Last year, unplanned absences in the workforce across the country were the highest they've been in five years. (CSM, 5/4/05)
Under a new policy that legal specialists say is the first of its kind, Weyco, an insurance benefits administrator in Michigan, began testing its 200 employees for smoking in January. (NYT, 2/8/05)
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